Letter from the President
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Les Pollock
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The credit market and stock market gyrations of late September clearly affect us all. And, they also bring to the forefront the challenges faced by those of us who work within the real estate industry. Even with anticipated government intervention to calm the markets and take responsibility for what one writer called the "radioactive mortgages" there remains the overall need for the private sector to find ways to energize the housing market, keep homeowners in their homes and minimize the adverse impacts upon neighborhoods and cities resulting from too many abandoned or vacant homes which result from foreclosure actions.
While tending to the credit markets requires national and international actions, tending to our housing markets can also be addressed at the local levels. What suggestions, if any, can one provide to holders of foreclosed properties to find ways to keep people in place and secure some cash flow to cover even a portion of their mortgage? Reverting failed owners to renters? Lowering interest rates? Extending amortization periods? Are there ways to formulate a set of programs and ideas particular to any community and to make these ideas known to the holders of these "radioactive mortgages"?
Can LAI be of some help? As a society of highly qualified individuals dealing in the real estate markets, is there something we can suggest that might stimulate thinking by our colleagues who have the need to act? I would suggest that it might be in the interest of the Society to encourage Chapters to focus on these issues at local luncheon sessions, or establish specific study groups to discuss and suggest ideas. And, it might be a useful function of the International to gather together the issues, considerations, conclusions and proposed directions which might come out of such discussions, and put them into a format that could be shared by all the membership and, perhaps, the various entities and individuals who are called upon to address elements of this disaster.
To that end, I have asked Helen Sause, our International Scribe and Chair of the Publications Committee to create a vehicle through KeyNotes or some other reporting mode to gather and disseminate to LAI members any Chapter reports, presentations and discussions on the issue of resurrecting the housing market. Should you have papers, individual thoughts, Chapter Newsletters or other material pertinent to this issue please provide them to Helen. If enough material comes in then perhaps we could establish a blog on the matter.
Whatever we do, one responsibility of LAI membership is to think and act positively to improve the stewardship and management of the land. Sharing information on how to address our current real estate debacle is clearly such a responsibility.
Les Pollock
LAI President
lpollock@camiros.com
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Helen Sause
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Dear Colleagues,
Oh the Headlines... "Home prices hammered even more..." "Uncaged Bears Hit Lehman Stock Hard..." "As SEC Restrictions Come to an End, Short Selling Rises..." "Lehman Woes Pressure AIG, Merrill Lynch..." "Falling Shares Raise Questions About Capital..." and on and on. And my personal favorite "Should You Fear the Ostrich Effect?"
The CFO of a well endowed non-profit Assisted Living Foundation was giving residents the news that the organization that had earned $9 million from its investments last year and only $600,000 this year ...he concluded by saying "and the headlines don't help either!!!" Fortunately, this organization is very conservative in its financial planning. The CFO was commiserating with the comparison of the organization to the residents' own financial investments and the market's wild gyrations. His advice was to treat the financial storm as a cataclysmic event like a hurricane and one should hunker down, not to lose one's head but to stay the course. He concluded by observing that the media does need to fill their white space with dramatic head lines and Wall Street has certainly given them reason to do so.
After treating the market crises on a case by case basis the government is now in the midst of contemplating a comprehensive buy-out and one can't even try to figure out what regulators, analysts and the chief executive officers are attempting to accomplish by tossing around billions of dollars. Who can even count that high, much less figure out where the money is coming from, and why reshaping the economy is so expensive. In gloomily contemplating the above, I received President Pollock's letter with the great suggestion that LAI can have a major impact on this crisis in our communities! Of course, Les I agree it is a great idea for the KeyNotes to focus on Chapter presentations of resurrecting the housing markets! Papers from within the chapters, or in their communities, presentations, papers, seminars, anything that could be shared across the world where LAI exists can foster solutions rather than mourning the current dismal outlook. We can look to other organizations too...maybe some good ideas coming out of planning, architectural and other development organizations. Our country has had a housing crisis for many years, thousands of homeless on our streets have constituted a housing crisis...now with the far reaching tragedies of the mortgage meltdown it gives us an opportunity to see if all aspects of the "housing crisis" can be solved.
Would it be too over the top to advocate for regulations so such excesses that resulted in the market reaching this point can be curbed?
Please please send me your thoughts, ideas, information and suggestions. We will make sure that they are shared.
‘Til next time.
Helen Sause
International LAI Editor
helensause@alamedanet.net
In Memoriam
Baltimore Chapter
CHARLES D. "CHUCK" LAIDLAW, Ph.D
LAI-Baltimore Chapter Bids Fond Adieu to Founding Member, CHARLES D. "CHUCK" LAIDLAW, Ph.D.
Chuck Laidlaw died August 27, 2008, after a long illness.
Chuck was one of the original board members of LAI Baltimore, serving for many years as chapter treasurer and later, as scribe. In that role, he authored Baltimore 2000: Colonial Seaport to 21st Century Metropolis. This monograph was distributed to participants attending LAI's first Urban Week-End, hosted by the Baltimore Chapter in April 2000.
Chuck worked on an economic feasibility of the Lower Manhattan Plan in the mid-l960s with David Wallace (urban designer of Baltimore City's Inner Harbor). This was during his pursuit of a Ph.D in Planning at the University of Pennsylvania. In 1967 Dr. Laidlaw moved to Baltimore to head the Research Unit of the Baltimore Regional Planning Council. There, he contributed to examining the economic issues related to plans for Charles Center-Inner Harbor.
In the mid-1970s, Chuck began consulting and also, teaching at Johns Hopkins University, Morgan State University and the University of Maryland/College Park. LAI-Baltimore President-Elect, Rachel Eadds studied quantitative methods with Professor Laidlaw. She and others in the local planing and development offices remember him as a wise and witty instructor.
Chuck is survived by his wife, Patricia, a welcome addition and attendee at the chapter's annual program and new member induction meeting; a daughter Jenifer, sons David and Brian and four grandchildren.
A public memorial service will be held on October 5, 2008 at the Radisson Cross Keys Hotel in Baltimore at 3:00 p.m. Contributions in his name may be made to the Jones Falls Watershed Association, 3000 Chesnut Avenue, Suite 100 , Baltimore, MD 21211.
Respectfully submitted,
Tara B. Clifford, Baltimore Chapter Member
www.lai-baltimore.org
Chapter Corner
Aloha Chapter:
The Aloha Chapter met for its regular quarterly luncheon meeting at the Oahu Country Club to hear Bank of Hawaii Senior Vice President and Economist Dr. Paul Brewbaker talk about the state of the economy and Hawaii's place in it. Dr. Brewbaker presented a lively chart summary across a range of economic indicators, injecting his typical dry humor as he concluded that Hawaii is generally in better shape than the mainland despite softening in the available housing units for sale (but so far little drop in prices) and some low double-digit drop in visitor arrivals in the tourism sector. A near-record 40+ members attended. Our next luncheon audience will hear Vincent Renard, an internationally-recognized land economist (and at-large LAI international member) from Paris, where he is the Directeur de Recherche au Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire D'Econometrie, Ecole Polytechnique, and edits the respected journal, Etudes Foncieres.
Ely Chapter:
The Ely Chapter initiated 45 new members in June, followed by our annual new members' orientation in August. The program was organized by former Chapter President Larry Lund. He began with a power point presentation about the history, purpose, organization, programs and benefits of membership. We also viewed "The Trial of Richard T. Ely" episode from the 1964 NBC television series Profiles of Courage which is about Ely's battle for academic freedom. We encourage new members to attend, but also have a good turnout among other members who enjoy the opportunity to meet and greet the new members and often find that they have learned something new about LAI.
Recently the Ely Chapter launched a Speaker Series, featuring members who can assist organizations and companies in understanding land use issues. The speakers are active in their fields and committed to sharing their experience, expertise and unique perspective. To date, over twenty members, including attorneys, architects, planners, transportation experts, real estate brokers, developers and municipal representatives, have signed up to participate. Topics include zoning, basic land use principles, housing, transportation, industry trends, taxation and economic development.
The speakers are available for individual presentations and panel discussions in various forums such as a classroom, conference, meeting or event tailored to any group's need. The Speaker Series has provided speakers to the University of Illinois and Beta Alpha Psi, a finance and accounting group, and is reaching out to other educational and community groups. If you would like more information, please contact Mike Mallon at mike.mallon@malloninc.com.
Laurie Marston, Ely Chapter Scribe
Ed.Note: Do read about the Speaker Series! What a great idea!
Irish Chapter:
A Report relative to chapter formation:
Denis Myles is the Irish Chapter President. A gathering has been arranged to deal with—inter alia— the practical aspects of sub-chapters in Dublin and Belfast, not the least in determining the legal domicile of the All Irish Chapter in one or other of the cities. Thereafter priority will be directed towards growing the respective memberships in the two cities.
It is premature to go into print on the immediate plans for the Chapter however it is indicated that ideas are being formulated as all the Chapter officers can get together to determine strategy and the tactics for implementation.
The actual and prospective members on both sides of the border are strongly supportive of having an All Irish Chapter straddling the border. This was seen as symbolising the already close relationships that exist across the whole field of Land Economics in Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Regarding Denis Myles, he is a Fellow of Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, having qualified in 1971. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Arbitrators and is a member of a wide variety of professional bodies in Northern Ireland covering the property world and academe.
As a leader Denis has been involved in various posts to advance business and development across Northern Ireland and internationally. He is a consultant on property issues to a wide range of financial and commercial institutions and to local government authorities and as such he is held in the highest esteem on both sides of the border.
This helpful information was provided by Dr. Karen Sieracki early in July, since then the Irish Chapter Affiliation Agreement has been signed and more resumes for members-at-large are being sent to Terry Stevenson for consideration by the Board of Governors. Denis Myles will be attending the Toronto BOG and LEW which is excellent news!
Ed. Note: The following is from Denis filling us in on what the volatile world market is doing to the booming Irish economy.
The property market in Ireland responded well to the formation of the power sharing Executive at Stormont. Private sector investors and others became aware of the property development needs which had arisen as a result of the 30 year time warp caused by the troubles. Awakened development confidence created demand for the land, sites and buildings required for regeneration and property prices and values were driven upwards. In particular there was a great need for new affordable social housing, but the wide range of public sector infrastructure also required updating and modernisation. Regeneration plans were formulated assuming a growth in economy, funds were invested but then came the global credit crunch. Much of the enthusiasm, confidence and energy of the development sector has now been deflated or frustrated with market prices and values collapsing.
The Celtic Tiger which has been so active in the recent past has also suffered from lack of confidence and appears at present to have run out of steam.
Throughout Ireland personal property demands and the need for an improved environment continues unsupplied but until the levels of confidence, good planning and economic logic can be reactivated, the drive to improve the physical as well as social environment, will continue to falter.
Leadership, resources, confidence are the basics for resolving the needs of our communities and now is the time for competent professionals to strand up and to speak loudly.
London Chapter:
Emerging real estate markets—obscurity to maturity; emergence to convergence
By Mark Charlton
Director and Head of Research at Colliers International.
At our Lunch on 11th September 2008 Mark gave us a fascinating insight into the course that many property markets follow as local economies mature towards the Western capitalist model. He used his personal experiences in the Balkans, Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan to illustrate his points.
We talk of "globalization", but sophisticated property markets in the terms of long-term investors really only exist in North America, Western Europe and South-East Asia. As other countries seek to emulate the economic success of these areas, they must develop property markets to match. Most, at present, are moving from command (often communist) economies to free markets.
Mark identified a sort of typical evolutionary path. This starts with political instability and inherited low quality (but often highly priced) built stock. Governments kick-start the process by taking initiatives to enhance the investment quality, and thus the price, of their own debt to invest in infrastructure, and, by extension, the debt of international companies they seek to attract. Success in this vastly expands occupier demand and, with limited supply, rents soar to premium levels. Mortgage market principles will also be established. As a facet of this, nuclear families start to break and migration to cities accelerates, raising the demand for housing. This triggers a first response from local developers, often to low standards and, on their back, international developers follow. Over-supply commonly arises, and rents fall.
The increasing presence of international companies forces improvements in building standards, and better space can be afforded as local wealth, often in limited hands, makes demands on retail and logistics for example. With such increases in building quality and robust renting arrangements international investors are attracted, albeit at yields higher than advanced economies. From this point on, convergence increases. Increased political and legal stability, greater transparency and increased data gradually reduce perceived business risk.
Not surprisingly, property market convergence runs in parallel with economic convergence, and also with social convergence. In the early phases, growing wealth will be in few hands, but the genesis of a burgeoning "middle class", even if it is not as extensive as in the Western world, is a key component.
This "model" is, in almost all cases, interrupted by over-ambition, and by political setbacks. It may also be retarded by local practices of "corruption". This makes investment early in the cycle suitable only for those willing to accept high risk, but Mark sees the overall direction of progress as generally being strongly driven by local wishes, and eventual acceptance that the Western model will deliver. He gave as an example a 400 hectare site in Belgrade that is slowly emerging from political deadlock as realization dawns of what must be done if its potential is to be delivered.
Mark emphasized that, whilst his model is robust, each country will have its own quirks. These may be quirks of history, or even quirks of ambition; not all countries wish to mimic the West entirely. Understanding how those quirks might distort the model, and particularly understanding where a country has got to on its journey requires extensive research and good local contacts if risk is to be managed.
As subsequent discussion brought out, the implication of Mark's paper was that property markets presently off the radar of investors might merit consideration rather earlier. With care, and understanding of his model, rational investment was feasible. There would be risks, not least of liquidity and valuation, but higher returns and risk-spreading techniques are natural bed-fellows.
Michael Mallinson, London Chapter Scribe
Los Angeles Chapter:
Induction of new Members
Twenty (20) new candidates, voted into membership will be inducted to the Los Angeles Chapter on November 15th, at the California Club in downtown Los Angeles. Another great year for the chapter, and one of the major goals accomplished by President Marsha Rood to encourage broadening membership with more representation from the public and transportation sectors, minorities and women.
Upcoming Los Angeles Events
Wednesday, October 15, 2008, California Club 11:45 am
Paige Serdin, Sr. Vice President of City National Bank, and Ron Buchanan, Sr. Vice-President of Keystone Mortgage Co. will discuss "The Real Truth About Today's Real Estate Financing". This event is jointly sponsored by the LA Chapter and the Orange County chapter.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009, California Club 11:45 am
Jack Keyser, Sr. Vice-President & Chief Economist, for Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation will once again present his "Annual Economic Forecast of the Los Angeles Region".
Tuesday, February 17, 2009, (location and time to be announced).
Speaker, Michael Dukakis, (former Governor of Massachusetts, and Democratic US Presidential candidate 1988), now a visiting professor in the Department of Public Policy at the School of Public Affairs at UCLA, will speak on "High Speed Rail for California". Dukakis, is known as a railroad buff and former Amtrak board member.
March 2009, Skyline Award Presentation Luncheon, (date, time and location to be announced) .
Phoenix Chapter:
Upcoming Events:
October 17 - Chapter Meeting - 7:30 am - 9:00 am , Marriott Phoenix Airport, 44th Street and 202 Freeway
November 21 - Chapter Meeting - 7:30 am - 9:00 am, Ritz Carlton, 24th Street and Camelback Road
December 3 - Holiday Party and New Member Induction - 6:00pm - 9:00pm, The Estate House, Scottsdale Canal
Announcements
Administration Matters!
Chapter Reports for Board Books Are Due:
As we prepare for the Board Meeting in Toronto, LAI needs from each of you a Chapter Report by October 3rd; this should include what your chapter has accomplished since our last meeting in May of 2008.
I will also need from each chapter a copy of your Chapter Bylaws due by September 30, 2008, even though they have been approved.
Send Chapter Reports and Chapter Bylaws to Terry Stevenson 214 N. Hale Street, Wheaton, IL 60187. [click on name to send e-mail]
Grant Requests Due:
The Land Economics Foundation's RFP's are due 30 days before the Board of Governors meeting. If you would like to submit an RFP please go to www.lai.org, look under the LEF tab. (At the bottom of the page you will find the link for RFP's)
If you have any questions about the LEF RFP's you can email one of Officers of the Foundation, President Steven Gragg, V.P. Ron Buss,Treasurer Frank Clayton, or Secretary Jack Swenson. [click on names to send e-mail]
Thoughts Upon Changing Officers
Lou Slade, George Washington Chapter:
Thinking about what happens when new officers come into office - it seems to me that you all are now midway in your first year???? (right?) and you now have an appreciation of what it takes to have a smooth transition - jotting down thoughts of what would be useful as noted on the attachment - could you please take a look at and add things that would improve the transition?
I am assuming a two year term (barely know where the bathroom is in a one year term - two years of course gives time to plan and implement strategies...and second assumption is that you change officers at the end of the second year (most of the LAI Chapters do) and this permits a check-in during the Spring LEW Weekend to talk administration with approximately the same understanding.
In response to the questions about the terms served by the LAI chapter officers the Aloha chapter has shared the following:
At the Aloha Chapter, the officers serve for a term of two years. We have a natural leadership succession process where the Vice President succeeds the President and one of the other officers succeeds the Vice President. In addition, the immediate Past President and our Historian, David Callies, who is also a LAI officer, serve on the chapter executive committee and provide invaluable guidance and experienced insight to the chapter leadership. At the end of this year, I will have served for 6 years as a chapter officer and will serve 2 more years as Past President on the executive committee.
In addition to the Aloha meeting announcements, and at the meetings, we invite and seek input from our members to encourage maximum participation and collaboration from all chapter members. As we have a stable membership of about 75 to 80 that come from a relatively small area, we know each other well and do not hesitate to offer our opinions and suggestions to the chapter leadership
Sanford Murata, Aloha Chapter President
San Diego weighs in:
In the San Diego Chapter, transition has never been a problem. We use the "climbing the ladder" system. Someone is brought in first as Secretary, then the following year they are automatically moved to treasurer, then Vice President (in charge of programs) and finally President and of course still on the Board the following year as Immediate Past President. This 5 year stepping system works great for us. In fact, all the officers tend to be able to stand in for one another if need be and collaborate on all the programs and policies of LAI.
Each post (sec/treas/vp/pres/past pres) are one year terms. My experience is that the Presidency is the easiest year after you've been through the others. Also, by the time you are President you really understand all the aspects of the chapter.
Hope that helps....
Mark Steele, San Diego Chapter President
Ed.Note: Would appreciate your sharing your chapter's process and experiences with us.
Attention LAI Members! Forgot how to login? No Problem
Please visit the LAI Website at www.LAI.org. On the left hand side click on the Members Only Tab. Here you will need to use your email and the password is lai.
Save the Date ! ! !
Toronto, Canada, Fall Land Economics Weekend
October 23 - 25, 2008
Park Hyatt Toronto
4 Avenue Road
Toronto, Ontario M5R 2E6 CANADA
http://www.parkhyatttoronto.com/
Hotel Reservations
Rates: $259.00 CAN Net, + taxes Single/Double
1-416-925-1234 or 1-800-233-1234
Registration Form and Agenda coming soon!
Vancouver, Canada, Spring Land Economics Weekend
May 7- 9, 2009
More information coming soon!
Tentative Schedule for Future Land Economics Weekends
2009
Spring: Vancouver, Canada, Vancouver Chapter
Fall: Chicago, Ely Chapter
2010
Spring: Minneapolis, Minnesota Chapter
Fall: New Mexico, Zia Chapter
2011
Spring: Scotland
Fall: ?
New Members
George Washington Chapter
Geoffrey Anderson, Smart Growth America
Erwin Andres, Gorove Slade Associates
William J. Bonstra, Bonstra Haresign Architects LLP
Uwe Brandes, Urban Land Institute
Greer Gillis, District Department of Transportation
Faroll Hamer, City of Alexandria Planning and Zoning
Rick Hammann, WDG Architecture, PLLC
Anthony Hood, DC Zoning Commission
Laura Harris Hughes, EHT Traceries
Rosalynn Hughey, DC Office of Planning
Richard Josephson, City of Alexandria Planning and Zoning
Julia Koster, National Capital Planning Commission
Jair Lynch, Jair Lynch Companies
Ronnie McGehee, R. McGhee and Associates
Rebecca Miller, DC Preservation League
Kathleen Penney, District Department of Transportation
Russell Perry, SmithGroup
Alison Prince, Pillsbury Winthrop etc.
Jonathan Rak, McGuireWoods LLP
Lisa Rother, ULI Washington
John Shooshan, The Shooshan Co.
Suman Sorg, Sorg and Associates PC
William Spack, cox graae + spack Architects
Paul Trombley, Storrs Design Group
Craig Watson, SmithGroup
Pamela Wessling, Jones Lang Lasalle
London Chapter
Stanley Beckett, Magrath LLP
Mark Richard Charlton, Colliers CBE
Ken Steven, Hall Walker Steven Limited
Sue Wheldon, Douglas Wallace |
Los Angeles Chapter
Frances Banerjee, Banerjee Associates (Traffic and Transportation)
Tevis Barnes, City of Culver City, Community Development Dept. Housing
Hal Bastian, Los Angeles Downtown Center Business Improvement District
Kenneth Bernstein, City of Los Angeles Dept. of City Planning
Joseph Chatham, Chatham Street Mortgage Services
Robert J. Fazio, Robert Fazio Consulting (Planning and Community Revitalization)
Douglas M. Ford, Unitex Management Corporation
Lambert M. Giessinger, AIA, Historic Preservation Architect
Scott Ginsburg, Combined Properties, Inc.
Craig Johnson, Culver City Building Safety Division
Iao M. Katagiri, The RAND Corporation
Debi Kroman, North American Title Co.
Carmela Ma, CJM Associates, Inc. (Real Estate Investment Brokerage)
Neal Millard, White & Case, LLP
Dowell Myers, PhD, USC School of Policy, Planning and Development
Steven A. Preston, City of San Gabriel
Tony Salazar, McCormack Baron Salazar (Development)
Milton Swimmer, Swimmer Development LLC
Todd D. Weaver, Synergy Commercial Real Estate, Inc.
Judith A. Wilson, Judy Wilson & Associates (Planning and Management)
Orange County
Peter J. Carpenter, Paragon Partners Ltd.
Paul J. Weinberg, Paul J. Weinberg, Attorney at Law
Zia Chapter
Michael T. Greene, The Goldsmith Group
Ted O. Harrison, Commonweal Conservancy
John B. (Jack) Hiatt, City of Santa Fe
Jeff Laird, Laird & Co. LLC
Albert C. Moore, Albert Moore + Associates, LLC, Architecture and Community Design
Lorn C. Tryk, Lorn Tryk Architects, PC
Sharron Welsh, Santa Fe Community Housing Trust
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