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LAI KeyNotes: June 2009
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An Honorary Society Providing a Forum for the 
Advancement of Land Economics www.LAI.org
June 2009 The Honorary Society for the Advancement of Land Economics
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Featured Stories

Chicago Land Economics Weekend

photo
Millenium Center, Chicago

The Ely Chapter urges you to "Make No Little Plans and Blow into the Windy City" for the Land Economics Weekend.  The Centennial of Burnham's Plan of Chicago is being commemorated throughout this year, and the Ely Chapter invites you to join the celebration on October 22 - 24, 2009.  A Symposium will feature speakers debating the legacy of Burnham's Plan of Chicago, and a walking tour along North Michigan Avenue's Magnificent Mile will step-off right from the host hotel.  Other tours will include walking in President Obama's footsteps in Hyde Park, proposed 2016 Olympic Venues and the greenest of Green and Sustainable projects.   The world-famous and newly renovated Drake Hotel will serve as both the host hotel and the location of the Opening Reception and Dinner.  The Biennial Awards Dinner will take place at the new Trump International Hotel and Tower, providing a view of what Burnham may have envisioned over 100 years ago.  Please join us for a weekend 100 years in the making! 

LEW Video

Save the date
for the Chicago Land Economics Weekend!
Celebrating the Centennial of the Burnham Plan
October 22-24, 2009


The Drake Hotel, Chicago, IL
Hotel Reservations Rates:
*$255.00 US + taxes Single/Double
Phone: 1-800-55-Drake
140 East Walton Place
Chicago, IL 60611

www.thedrakehotel.com


Letter from the President

photo of Les Pollock
Les Pollock

It seems today that everybody is talking about  all things "green".  Green, as shorthand for sustainability; which the dictionary defines as relating to a use of a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged.  Being somewhat of a skeptic, I have wondered about the sustainability of "sustainability".  After all, I remember the oil bust of the 1970's, the Club of Rome Limits to Growth study published in 1974 and other world system models that indicated that natural resources would soon be in short supply or disappear, only to be proven faulty by the flexibility of an entrepreneurial and innovative economy .

Not that I'm a supporter of the profligate use of fossil fuels, and the pattern of sprawling urban development that it allows. Nor, have I been a doubter of the adverse impact of removing forests, continued coal fired power generation and other activities which have been found to increase greenhouse gas production and global warming. Rather, as a professional city planner and teacher, I believe that my responsibility to my clients and students is to provide fact based rather than ideological based information.  To that end, the issue that always bothered me was not if "we" -- the developed western world -- had enough resources, but what would happen when the size of the developed world so increased that demand would clearly exceed supply, and technological fixes could not keep up with the global warming challenge..

Well, that's happening now with the growth of the consuming classes in once third world countries like China and India.  Think of it; if only fifteen percent of China's and India's population reached what we think of as the middle class, with all the affluence and consumption potential that implies, we would see 300 million new major consumers and carbon dioxide creators which is close in size to the present population of North America.  Think of the impact! Thomas Friedman, in his recent book Hot Flat and Crowded has, and he cites facts that projects fossil fuel shortages and adverse global warming within the short term if not within our lifetimes.  If you don't like Friedman's conclusions, read any number of similar articles. Indeed, recent articles in respected journals such as Atlantic Monthly, the Economist and the Wall Street Journal have discussed technical fix  geo-engineering approaches to address the greenhouse gas reality. When this type of article is found in such journals you know the situation is getting scary.
All this to say it's time for skeptics, non believers, ideologues and those with only short term personal investment horizons to grapple with issues of sustainability. While quite aware of the dangers of oversimplification, I don't think one can argue with the conclusion that the major challenges to a sustainable environment lie in the management of food production, power generation, transportation and urban development.  The membership of LAI may have some individuals well versed in all categories, but for sure, we are all well versed in urban development.  Indeed, the importance of urban sustainability is often driven home in our meetings and semi-annual Land Economics Weekends as we view and discuss LEED certified buildings, green roofs, cogeneration facilities and the like.

Given the growing consensus on the need to create a more sustainable environment, perhaps it's time for LAI to do something more that bring forth projects for discussion. I believe that it's time for LAI to take a position advocating sustainability. I recognize that this is, perhaps, a radical request since a key tenet of our Society holds that LAI should , to paraphrase part of our initiation oath, "not conflict with one's sense of right or wrong". Yet how, in the light of our current environmental challenges, can a position that suggests a cautious husbanding of resources and consideration of the consequences of public policy and private investment upon the production or minimization of our "carbon footprint" be "wrong"?  Remember that Lambda Alpha stands for logos aigistos or caring for the land.

So, should the Society take a position in support of sustainability as a key to our philosophy of caring for the land, and if so should we, as a group, advocate for plans, public policies and projects that are sustainable, and oppose those that aren't?  Members who find this of interest might initiate this discussion within their chapter or suggest positions for consideration by the International membership. Indeed, it could well be that I'm late to the party and some chapters have already acted or at least have taken up the discussion. That the Society takes a formal position on any issue is something not to be taken lightly.  Let me hear your opinions.

Les Pollock
LAI President
lpollock@camiros.com


Featured Stories

Chicago Land Economics Weekend

Letter from the
President

Editor's Column

In Memoriam

International Awards

Chapter Corner

Baltimore Chapter

Boston Chapter

Ely Chapter

George Washington Chapter

Los Angeles Chapter

Phoenix Chapter

Vancouver Chapter

Zia Chapter

Land Economics Foundation (LEF)

LEF Grant Program

Announcements

Administration Matters!

Save the Date!

New Members

Online KeyNotes is published monthly for members of Lambda Alpha International.

Editor: Helen Sause, Golden Gate Chapter

Production Manager: Michele Meng

Send your announcements for next edition of KeyNotes to LAI@LAI.org

Webmaster / Designer: Kathy Keler

For more information about LAI activities, visit the website or contact the International Office: Terry Stevenson, Executive Director
214 N. Hale Street
Wheaton, IL 60187
p: 630/510-4584
f: 630/510-4501 lai@lai.org




photo of Helen Sauce
Helen Sause
Editor's Column

Dear Colleagues,

Dear Colleagues!  Back to the Economy...You can't miss this recession, international, national and local news are filled with even the slightest nuance of the economy, the markets, banks, the EU the latest business  failures.  It fills the media, conversations over lunch, dinner, pillow talk.  No sector is immune and businesses, non-profits, and all sectors of government are all feeling the pain.  We probably haven't seen the worst of it: the impacts of property tax declines on city services will come after June, more storefronts will become vacant and demands on groups serving the low income,  homeless and underemployed will grow as resources shrink. 
 
 So far San Francisco has dodged the worst of it, with unemployment relatively low (good news unless its you!). We have a diverse economy without over-reliance on a single industry, along with a diverse, educated and creative workforce.  But the reduction in travel is beginning to have a major impact on one of our major "industries" and the lack of visitors in our hotels, restaurants etc. is beginning to have a significant dampening effect on many jobs, and all forms of income. Housing speculation has been reduced and it's not a good time to be in the market to sell, but a good time to buy, not a good time to offer office space for lease but not a bad time to be looking. Now is a good time to position for the return of growth. 
 
We forget history and repeat it.  Or maybe we repeat it whether we remember it or not-- the global nature of our economy is what's different this time and hopefully we can build in controls to stop our memories from "forgetting" this world wide melt down and prevent another such disaster!
 
Till next time.                      

Helen Sause
International LAI Editor
helensause@alamedanet.net


In Memoriam

Boston Chapter

Charles Bailey Akerson, age 86, died April 22, 2009.  Charlie was considered the appraiser's appraiser and counselor's counselor of international renowned.  Authoring Capitalization Theory and Techniques Study Guide, The Appraiser's Workbook and An Introduction to Mortgage Equity Capitalization, Charlie wrote, thought, taught and talked the new and evolving income approach to valuation.  He was the 1978 President of the American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers (predecessor organization to the Appraisal Institute) and 1982 editor of the Appraisal Journal .

First chairman in 1989 of the Appraisal Standards Board of the Appraisal Foundation, and President of the Union Panamericana de Asociaciones de Valuacion 1996 to 1998. Charlie received many awards and accolades from his professional and personal service.  He was an accomplished and successful professional and truly epitomized the objectives of Lambda Alpha.  Charlie was invited to join Lambda Alpha in 1988.

Letters of condolence can be sent to his wife Jean G. Akerson, 99 Norumbega Road, Apartment 119, Weston, Massachusetts  02493.

International Awards

The International Awards Committee has announced the names of honorees receiving international awards at the fall LAI Biennial Congress.  They are:

International Urban Affairs Award
Valerie Jarrett, The White House, Washington, DC
Dr. Wm. G. O’Hare, Parker Green International, Newry, Northern Ireland

International Public Official
Rhonda Faught, New Mexico Department of Transportation, Santa Fe
Lawrence Rael, Mid-Region Council of Governments, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Chris Blewett, Mid-Region Council of Governments, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Richard T. Ely Distinguished Educator
Professor Dowell Meyers, University of Southern California, Los Angeles

International Journalism Award
Carol Colletta, CEOs for Cities, Chicago
John Plender, The Financial Times, London

Gerald Hines International Humanitarian Award
Constance Maffin, Washington, DC

International Author Award
Professor Steven P. Erie, University of California, San Diego

International Fellow Award
Walter Winius, Jr., Phoenix
Peter Holsten, Chicago

International Member of the Year Award
Susan Aaron, Chicago
Louis J. Slade, P.E., Washington, DC

International Skyline Award
Columbia Heights Metro Rail Station Area, Washington, DC (Award to be accepted by Neil Albert, Deputy Mayor, Washington, DC)

 

 

Chapter Corner

Baltimore Chapter:

Spring Update

Baltimore members welcomed LAI President and Camiros, Ltd Partner Lester Pollock and his colleague Arista Strungys to the chapter’s program meeting on March 18th.   

To a standing room-only crowd of members and guests, Les first provided an overview about the Lambda Alpha International Honorary Land Economics fraternity and the LAI Foundation and described what each does.  He talked about the semi-annual LAI Week-Ends that, according to Pollock, provide terrific opportunities for members in the 22 LAI chapters to develop relationships build networks and learn about the host community and local issues. He invited all to attend the upcoming LAI Week-end in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada in May 2009.

Turning to his professional role and partnership with LAI Baltimore Vice President Rachel Edds, Edds Consulting and David Benn, Principal, Cho, Benn & Holback Architecture, he provided a status of his work with the City of Baltimore to perform a comprehensive evaluation and update of the Baltimore City Zoning Code, which had not occurred since 1971.  He began by complimenting the City’s Planning Department and staff that spent one year identifying issues (e.g., mixed use districts) to be addressed.  With a fast paced power-point presentation, “Professor” Pollock (who also serves as Adjunct Faculty on the Department of Urban Planning and Policy at the University of Illinois) summarized the eight major proposals for rewriting the Zoning Code.  A summary of the key proposals, their guiding visions and preliminary recommendations are available by visiting www.baltimorecity.gov/goernment/planning.  Pollock said that a draft of the new Zoning Code would be available for public discussion towards the end of this year.

“Great Time to Buy in Baltimore” was the mantra of April’s LAI-program speaker, Mark Sissman, President, Healthy Neighborhoods.

With passion about his city and its neighborhoods plus a stellar professional background in affordable housing and community revitalization and redevelopment, Mark Sissman has focused his efforts during the past eight years on the “forgotten” but still strong yet undervalued middle-income neighborhoods that have not appreciated. Healthy Neighborhoods (HN) works with foundations and banks and that partners with the Greater Baltimore Board of Realtors and the City.  Sissman claims HN is changing the discourse about how neighborhood change themselves.  The nonprofit organization operates to increase home values; market the communities; create high standards for property improvement; organize neighborhoods and the leaders; and build homeowners’ assets. It focuses on neighborhood markets and tracks targeted and measureable outcomes. 

Annually, neighborhoods compete to become part of HN’s; 15 now are designated as Healthy Neighborhoods even though one quarter of the City’s neighborhoods need this strategic attention and investment. Operating in a counter-intuitive manner to the traditional urban renewal/revitalization process, HN builds from strength and creates demand to respond to the existing supply.  They start the home improvement lending in a neighborhood’s best blocks and supplement this activity with community projects that support positive images, such as tree plantings and community festivals. The organization got launched with public money but returned all of it due to bureaucratic requirements that stifled rather than supported investment by homeowners in their homes or purchase by new homebuyers.  HN has no income limits and requires no counseling for accessing its preferential rate financing.

The Rolling Stones magazine named Baltimore in 2008 as the best city for musicians and artists.  According to a Fall 2008 survey in the Baltimore region and city, done in collaboration with the Greater Baltimore Board of Realtors, forty five percent (45%) of home buyers are single and of these, 1/3 are single women.  Baltimore and its healthy neighborhoods are attracting relocatees from New York and Boston; these are people who like to bike and/or walk to work or to the train if commuting to Washington, DC. 

Proudly, Healthy Neighborhoods under Sissman’s leadership is adding to the public’s confidence about the future of Baltimore. It has created new strategies and a new language for community development by building a new, smart community development intermediary.  Most importantly, it has put middle-income neighborhoods on the City’s community development map.  For more information, visit www.healthyneighborhoods.org.

Johns Hopkins University Practitioner Faculty, Roger Staiger III Predicts Continued Decline in Residential Pricing Levels

Since Baltimore Chapter members heard Roger’s gloomy forecast at their annual meeting on November 19, 2008, he returns monthly to provide an update on the residential and commercial real estate market nationally and in Baltimore. 

At the March meeting, he indicated that “pricing levels nationally and regionally (D.C./Baltimore) have returned to mid-2003 levels.  The pricing changes remain the worst in recorded history and exhibit no upward pressures. The prediction is prices will continue to worsen and fall through 2010 with the bottom occurring in the 1st quarter 2011.” He further added that I most areas, it is more efficient to invest in condominiums than Single Family Detached homes.  The sole ray of good news at the April 15th meeting during his update is “things are getting bad at a lesser rate.”  He foresees no price increase/escalation in the residential market until 2014.

The June 17th program lunch meeting of the LAI-Baltimore chapter was held in the Johns Hopkins University’s Edward St. John Conference Room at One Charles Center. Chapter President John Murphy and fellow member, Joseph T. “Jody” Landers, Executive Vice President,, Greater Baltimore Board of Realtors jointly introduced the guest speaker, Baltimore native F. Barton “Bart” Harvey III.  Mr. Harvey is the former Chair of the Board of Trustees of Enterprise Community Partners and since 2008, a member of the Board of Directors of Fannie Mae.

Bart gave a sobering talk about the ongoing mortgage crisis in the country.  He used information from the Preventing Foreclosure Task Force, which was part of the Report on Retooling HUD for Catalytic Federal Government, February 2009, www.upenn.edu/penniur/pdf/Retooling HUD.  Focusing on the outstanding $11.2 trillion of mortgages, he identified $4.2 trillion are held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and another $1.5 trillion are subprime loans.  According to Harvey, there are 2 million foreclosures today and Credit Suisse projected in December 2008 there would be an additional 8.1 million foreclosures by the end of 2012.  He indicated the Task Force that he co-chaired recommended a bold, fair and comprehensive plan of intervention by the federal government.  This included programs for refinancing and loan modification of a significant portion of subprime and Alt-A loans outstanding along with related legislative and regulatory changes.  The effect would be to help homeowners remain in their homes; stabilize housing prices; reduce excess housing supply; reliquify toxic assets; and create a market to attract private capital.

Members asked about the status of the recommendations.  Beginning with a claim that Shaun Donovan is the best HUD Secretary in years, he said there was no political will to forgive a portion of principal on loan modifications and no judicial modification was approved.

According to Fannie Mae’s latest estimates, the actual numbers of homeowners assisted fall far short of the projections (1 million versus 4 to 5 million refinancing at 4.5%; and1 million versus 3 to 4 million loan modifications).  Thus, only 2 million versus 7 to 9 million have been assisted; were these 2 million eventually become part of the 8 to 9 million new foreclosures forecasted by Credit Suisse, one can see the magnitude of the crisis.  He said foreclosure filings now top 300,000 and more are coming into the pool during the next several quarters. This 3rd wave of foreclosures is dependent on the economy and unemployment. 

Showing a map with home prices, values in California were down 33% on average and 21.3% in the South Atlantic region. Florida is in the worst shape and getting worse.  California’s housing market decline preceded everyone by one year but now is coming back and evidencing some supply elasticity. 

Based on his conversation with Secretary Donovan the night before the LAI meeting, Harvey indicated increasing the scale of loans to be modified by hiring new servicers is important along with increasing the loan to value ratio. Government research shows that 7 to 9 million people with mortgages in Freddie’s and Fannie’s $4 trillion pool, the value of the mortgages is 105% of appraised value of a house. According to Harvey, this needs to be increased to 120 percent of Loan to Value to help, especially in California and Florida. For Freddie and Fannie, he indicated that an increase of up to 125% is coming.

Members mused about the existing system and servicers and where the people power will come from to restructure the loans quickly.  A challenge is how fast folks who are doing other things can get trained and gear up to do the loan mods before people walk. Another member asked how the housing counseling industry is working with and educating individual homeowners who are “psychologically frozen” and do not know how to help themselves and develop a plan of action. After talking about the responsibility of the financial institutions and their investors who pushed products that created this global crisis, the last word was “the political heat hasn’t gotten hot enough yet to force things to change.  The program relies on lenders doing the ‘right thing’”.

President Murphy concluded the meeting by inviting members to take a copy of The Living City – Baltimore’s Charles Center and Inner Harbor Development.  One Charles Center is the first commercial building in Baltimore designed by architect, Ludwig Mies van der Rohe.  Information about One Charles Center is included in this book published in 2002 by the Maryland Historical Society with photographs by Marion E. Warren & text by Michael P. McCarthy. The books were donated by the Baltimore Community Foundation as a token of thanks to members of the LAI-Baltimore Chapter for their civic leaders.

The next meeting of the Baltimore Chapter will occur aboard the historic Chesapeake Bay skipjack, Sigsbee on July 29th.  This is the second annual tour of Baltimore’s waterfront and will be guided by Baltimore native M.Jay Brodie, President, Baltimore Development Corporation, and a representative of the MD Port Authority.

Tara B. Clifford, Baltimore Chapter Scribe

 

Boston Chapter:

The Boston Chapter sponsored its Boston harbor cruise and market update June 16, 2009 for 30 members and guests. Chapter member Lowell Richards, Director of Real Estate Development for MassPort narrated a tour of port facilities and recent waterfront completions on MassPort, City of Boston and private property visible from the harbor.  Action in South Boston, East Boston, the North End and Charlestown made the trip well worth the two-hour circle and weather co-operated.  The history lesson is always as interesting as the forecast.  The harbor front is now enhanced by the Big Dig with the elevated artery demolished and the Rose Kennedy Greenway taking shape.  Better seen from the air, the trees along the Greenway, the harbor walk and the walk-to-sea connecting the Quincy Market with waterfront are all visible from the harbor and are resulting benefits of the Big Dig.  . The tides are turning once again in Boston!
 
David S. Kirk, Boston Chapter President


Ely Chapter:

Chicago was the host of Green Festival the weekend of May 16th at Navy Pier.  Those that attended enjoyed learning about all things green through trade booths and work shops, great music, dancing and food.  The event is meant to be a collaboration of businesses and residents to share best practices between them to further promote sustainability.

The Plan of Chicago@100:15 Views of Burnham's Legacy for a New Century has been selling quite nicely.  Over 500 books have been sold to date at venues including the Chicago Botanic Gardens in Glencoe, book signings at Cliff Dwellers in Chicago and the Book Stall in Winnetka.  Members of the chapter also staffed a booth at the Printer's Row Book Fair in June in an effort to promote and sell the book.

The initiation banquet on June 17th proved to be a wonderful evening with 47 new initiates being inducted to the Ely Chapter. Congratulations to Susan Aaron for receiving the Harry Chadick Distinguished Public Service Award and Reuben Hedlund for his receipt of the Daniel H. Burnham Distinguished Service Award.

Don't miss out on a great day in southern Michigan and northwest Indiana at our next salon, Lake Michigan's South Coast, which will occur on Saturday June 27th from 10am to 7pm.  The schedule of events includes breakfast at the farmstead of Mike and Pat Shymanski, a tour of the historic Swedish farmstead preservation project, a speaker series with Constantine Dillon, the Superintendent of the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore and John A. Swanson, Executive Director, Northwestern Indiana Regional Plan Commission.  The agenda will be followed in the afternoon with information pertaining the Tourism and Culture in Three Oaks, MI.  The events include lunch at Acorn Theater in Three Oaks, MI catered by Froelich's and a panel discussion on Culture, Lodging and Resort Trends on Lake Michigan's South Coast with speakers including David Fink of Acorn Theater, Jim Morrin of Hidden Orchard Resort Spa, Dev Bowley of Gordon Beach/Lakeside Inns to be moderated by Victoria Cooper.   Dinner will conclude the evening at Three Sisters Cottage, home of Victoria Cooper & Shawn Magee in Gowdy Shores in Union Pier, MI with a discussion on Lake Michigan's South Coast's Importance as Part of the Greater Chicagoland Area to be moderated by Larry Lund.

Allen Joffe, Ely Chapter Secretary

Chicago @ 100" is a  great read.  Anyone interested in planning and history will be blown away by the influence one person's vision had on the development of our cities...I would love to have our members read it then send in their book reviews on their reactions....how about for the July edition?  Be nifty to have your thoughts before and after being in Chicago for the Land Economics Weekend (LEW)  you have the dates on your calendar,  October 22 -24, 09, and are making your plans to participate right!?! /S/Editor

 

George Washington Chapter:

The Chapter is pleased to have had its three nominees for International Awards approved by the LAI Board of Governors:
 
LAI International Member of the Year
:  LAIGW President Louis Slade
Gerald D. Hines International Humanitarian Award:  recent LAIGW Board Member Connie Maffin (posthumous)
Skyline Development Award: Columbia Heights, Washington, DC
 
LAIGW also profited from two excellent luncheon lectures in April and May.  The first, by Bill Hard, Executive Vice President of LCOR, was about North Bethesda (MD) Center, the largest transit-oriented development project ever approved by Metro, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority.  The Main Street style development that links all the new buildings will include 930,000 sf of office space, 202,000 sf of retail space and 1,275 multifamily housing units.  Further, as Montgomery County, MD, stresses ever more the need to concentrate new growth around transit corridors, the possibility of more intensive development exists on the 32 acre site, formerly a Metro parking lot.  However, the developer must consider how it can use and afford the additional density given the County's menu of 22 types of enhancements that need to be addressed to get bonus density.  The project was approved initially by Metro in 1996, and the first phase of development-- 65,000 sf of retail and a 312 unit apartment building-- is at last under construction.  Lease negotiations, infrastructure apportionment among eight development phases, County approval processes and market opportunities/conditions contributed to the length of time to get underway.  The last two will continue to affect the pace of future development.
 
Chapter Vice President, Mary Fitch, Executive Director of the DC AIA Chapter treated members to an overview of recent award-winning architectural projects in the Washington area.   Her presentation covered a number of themes including modern architecture; she noted that, in Washington, the national trend of loft building conversions to residential use involves interpretation through new construction since Washington is a non-manufacturing, non-warehouse city for the most part.  Other themes included creative use of glass in a number of downtown buildings and the common acceptance of "green" or LEED building practices as opposed to a few years ago.  She humorously suggested new architectural business prospects in Washington as increased government intervention in finance and industry provide opportunities for architects to house regulators.
 
Rosalynn Doggett, George Washington Chapter Scribe

 

Los Angeles Chapter:

A question for the LA chapter.   There was a curious article in the June 7 New York Times with the headline "Dressing It Up Before Tearing It Down".  This seemed unusual in a time when neither fixing things up nor tearing them down is the order of the day! The article explained that, So Korean Air (part of the Hanjjn Group), is the owner of the Wilshire Grand hotel.  They are in the midst of a $20 million makeover of the 900 room hotel.  This is a building that advertises itself as having the best location in Los Angeles but the owner believes that even with this makeover it will not be competitive with its nearby upscale neighbors.  So the renovation will be completed this fall and the Owner will begin the 2 -4 year process of design, entitlements, and financing necessary to built two towers to include a state of the art 700 room hotel, meeting rooms, retail and offices.

James A. Thomas, the Thomas Properties Group, and Korean Air's owners rep, Penny Pfaelzer might be interesting to talk to about the ability to pull this daring development off in this "worst of times".  Just curious.  /s/ Editor

 

London Chapter:

Lending to commercial property - "Please Mr Banker, can I have some more?"
By Jonathan Rhodes - Director & Head of Valuation of Capital Markets,
G L Hearn - Property Consultants.
 
If I had been Jonathan, I might have said "no!", and sat down to enjoy the rest of our lunch on 18th June. That was, after all, the essence of his message. However, he was also a bit like Elijah (well, despite my age, I don't actually know what Elijah looked like) and,  in an excellent and richly fact-filled talk he chose also to offer some prospects "no bigger than a man's hand".
 
The recent history of bank lending is a cautionary tale of over-optimism, lax control and cavalier attitudes to securitised risk. Whilst, in your scribe's view, this will all have been forgotten by 2019, Jonathan traced out the present emaciated and over-stretched state of the banks; as he noted, Lloyds Banking Group (vice Halifax Bank of Scotland) and Royal Bank of Scotland are, in effect, the largest landlords in the UK. With two thirds of present debt expiring within 4 years, and with the 35-40% fall in values decimating LTV ratios the banks have been forced to take a cautious and phased approach to retrieving their exposure; this has frustrated the hoard of circling vulture funds. The banks' position has been slightly relieved by low base rates, which has made re-financing a little more reachable. They are also helped by a strengthening investment market for the "best" properties ? the Germans being particularly active, but a wider range of Funds are starting to see good property as a "least bad" haven. This has encouraged debt-equity swaps with a 3 to 5 year work-out.
 
Nevertheless, banks generally are seeking to de-leverage and recapitalise.  They are also running scared about the riskiness of their clients and further slippage in values. As a result -"no!" There are only about 10 possible sources of lending, and these are all highly selective and risk-averse: only those with the right property and who can show themselves to be the right borrower with a good track record need apply. If you get over this hurdle, you will get no more than 65% LTV and have to pay 200-250 basis points margin. Any property that can be seen as secondary, carrying undue risk or involving residential is poisoned from the word "go".
 
Now for the cloud-- a good thing because it promises rain! Wholesale money markets are starting to unblock, which will relieve the liquidity of banks-- stock. i.e. money. As the property market improves, the fundamentals of borrowing/lending will look more interesting. Perversely, this may be particularly so in the secondary market once fear of small business insolvencies recedes. Maybe soft rain will start to fall in 2010 at the top end and 2011 at the secondary. However, terms will remain tight, with hedging fees against inflation staying high because of governmental indebtedness; for a long time, banks will look for better terms for less risk. This mildly optimistic outlook carries one underlying assumption: that politically driven calls for "better" regulation cause no material damage to the banking structure.
 
You will recall that the worshippers of Baal came to a sticky-- perhaps investors in property - and banks, need to learn from their example and convert.
 
Michael Mallinson, London Chapter Scribe

 

Phoenix Chapter:

The Phoenix chapter held its Summer Real Estate Seminar on June 16th.  Metro Phoenix has borne the brunt of national bad press recently, with Richard Florida's cover article in the March edition of Atlantic Monthly "How the Crash Will Reshape America" postulating that the region will get pummeled due to an economy overly dependent on real estate and construction, leading to perpetual boom-bust cycles. 
 
The Summer Real Estate Seminar featured comments by Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, with a panel composed of Robert E. Lang (Director, Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Polytechnic Institute), Linda Hunt (President, St. Joseph's Hospital) and Bob Robb (prolific columnist from the Arizona Republic), moderated by Grady Gammage Jr. (Senior Fellow ASU Morrison Institute, Partner Gammage & Burnham), assembled to discuss the future of Metro Phoenix-- is Richard Florida right?
 
Mayor Gordon spoke of the city and the Greater Phoenix Economic Council reaching out both nationally and internationally to attract companies from Europe, Canada, the Middle East and the eastern USA.  Federal stimulus funds are being secured to build the Phoenix Sky Train (aka People Mover) which will link Sky Harbor Airport with the metro light rail system.  Downtown Phoenix saw 44 new restaurants and bars open in the last 18 months, serving the 7,000 full time students at Arizona State University's downtown campus.  Sales tax in downtown Phoenix are rising ? unlike other cities in the metropolitan region.
 
Robert Lang spoke of the Sun Corridor, that economically interdependent region composed of metropolitan Phoenix, Pinal County and metropolitan Tucson spanning 110 miles in length.  He outlined the new urban hierarchy, highlighting the difference between the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and combined statistical area (CSA).  The CSA consists of interdependent MSA, with the interdependency measured by commuting between areas (25% + commuting experience indicates a link), and employment interchange (15%+ threshold indicates a link).  The Phoenix -- Pinal County --Tucson MSA's are on track to qualify as a CSA within 25-30 years.  Development opportunities in metro Phoenix are anticipated along the freeway, air and light rail routes, with transit oriented development presenting numerous opportunities.  He highlighted the importance of the Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, as a key to future economic development in the region.  Lang believes commercial real estate in Metro Phoenix is faring better than residential, with retail outperforming office, and single tenant retail outperforming multi-tenant retail.  Population growth is anticipated to continue in the region, with a projection of 6 million people in the Sun Corridor by 2015 (per Woods & Poole). Employment growth is expected to average 60,000 jobs per year over the next decade.
 
Bob Robb expressed the opinion that prognosticators from the east coast have a hard time understanding the appeal of living in metro Phoenix.  People like living here because they get to chart their own course of living -- that may mean living in the large ranch home on a large lot, shopping at Wal-Mart and acting otherwise contrary to the latest identified demographic trend.  Phoenicians are a blend of peoples from across the nation, and they enjoy the great variety of options the metro area offers. 
 
Linda Hunt echoed this theme, contrasting the difference between living in Phoenix versus Denver, with Phoenix enjoying a much stronger sense of community.   Linda also addressed the myth that healthcare is immune from the recession - it is not.  Bad debt is up, under and uninsured are growing phenomally, state/federal reimbursements are dropping and the industry is struggling to adjust.
 
Conclusions?  Phoenix will continue to grow.  The sky is not falling.
 
Sheila Hamilton, Phoenix Chapter Administrator

 

Vancouver Chapter:

Whistler development presentation (ppt.)
LAI Whistler presentation (pdf)
UBC Live on Campus pdf
Utown Neighborhood Map (pdf)

 

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LAI members at Olympic Slide

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View from Olympic Slide

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Anthony Perl aperl@sfu.ca, Chapter Scribe, Vancouver Chapter

 

Zia Chapter:

The Zia Chapter presents luncheon programs every other month.  On May 27th we partnered for the very first time with two other organizations to present a lunch program in a special venue on topics of interest to all three organizations.  Specifically, the Zia Chapter  was joined by The New Mexico Council of the Urban Land Institute and The New Mexico Chapter of the American Planning Association as luncheon co-sponsors.  We met at the new School of Architecture and Planning at the University of New Mexico designed by Antoine Predock.  School of Architecture and Planning Dean Roger Schluntz, a Zia Chapter member, and his staff facilitated our use of this facility, and Dean Schluntz gave a guided tour of the building after the luncheon presentations.  Our two speakers were Greg Neal, CEO of Hot Springs Land Development, LLC who summarized his 8000 acre master planned mixed use community under development in Truth or Consequences, NM and Aaron Prescott, business development manager for the New Mexico Spaceport Authority, the developer of Spaceport America, the first purpose-built spaceport in the United States located about 20 miles from Truth or Consequences.  Mr. Prescott brought us up to date on the commercial space flight industry and Spaceport America's plans to break ground on construction later in June, 2009.  The program was very well received.  We would like to thank our Chapter Administrator, Anita Martinez, for all her extra efforts to make this program a success.
 
In other news, we are winding up our 2009 membership drive so that nominees can be voted upon by our membership at our July meeting, starting to plan our Annual Meeting banquet for September, and will be officially forming our LEW Planning Committee for the Fall 2010 LEW in Santa Fe when our Board next meets on July 6th.
 
Tom Mills
Zia Chapter President

 

Land Economics Foundation (LEF)

LEF Grant Program   

LEF is a not-for-profit charitable foundation organized to administer an investment fund which provides grants for research projects related to land economics. Over the past three years LEF has committed capital (5% of assets) to a number of significant and worthwhile endeavors across the country on a matching basis with other non-profit entities.  The following are projects LEF has funded to-date.

Amount

Project

$5,000

Safe Horizon – A mediation program designed to train volunteers in three New York locations to assist the underprivileged in dealing with aggressive landlords. Highly successful program being expanded nationally.

 

 

$5,000

San Diego Canyonlands Video – Created a video on a collaborative basis with several conservation organizations to expose on cable television the critical need to preserve open space canyons as a natural link to other urbanized communities in the county.

 

 

$5,000

Arizona State University Student Chapter – Provided the initial funding to create a graduate student chapter in real estate to function cooperatively with LAI’s Phoenix Chapter; a model for other Chapters.

 

 

$30,000

Burnheim Centennial Celebration – An advanced commitment for LAI to participate with other major real estate organizations in 2009 to recognizing the unique skills of Daniel Burnheim, credited with the masterplanning of Chicago, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Manila, etc.

 

 

$4,500

Ross Minority Program – In cooperation with USC’s Marshall School of Business, LAI is participating with the partial sponsorship of minorities in attendance in a comprehensive, two-week program involving community redevelopment projects, primarily in neglected areas.

$5,000

Light Rail Value Impacts – With the completion and now operational Light Rail system in Phoenix, the Foundation underwrote the cost of updating a ULI study addressing the impact on land uses and values surrounding the stations along the new rail line.  The Master’s Thesis is to be submitted and published by Arizona State University. 

$10,000

San Miguel de Allende Land Use Study – A technical work shop involving 15 participants from multiple disciplines will be assembled in Mexico to provide guidance for urban growth patterns, transportation, water management, conservation, etc. for this community of 80,000 people.  LAI will be participating with six alliance partners.

LEF has carefully investigated a number of other proposed projects that it did not fund, primarily because of capital constraints at the point in time the request was made, others due to conflicts with our grant criteria. Without detail, the following were submitted and considered.

Amount

Project Name

$10,000

Tenement Museum Program

 

 

$10,000

World Urban Forum

 

 

$5,000

University of Memphis Scholarships

 

 

$5,000

California State University Scholarships

 

 

$100,000

Lewis Bolan Scholarships (John Hopkins University)

 

 

$5,000

Chicago Architecture Foundation

 

 

$10,000

DePaul University

 

 

$10,000

California State University (Fullerton) Scholarships

The principal thrust of our efforts has been to promote LAI recognition on a broad scale basis, with particular emphasis on local chapter involvement at numerous levels. We look forward to considering your Chapter’s application, the process can be found on LAI’s website. Please do not hesitate to contact any of the officers for guidance if needed, that is what we are here for.

Download this article in word format

LEF Grant Program (pdf)

Ron Buss, LEF Vice President


Announcements

Administration Matters!

Attention LAI Members! Forgot how to login? No Problem 
Please visit the LAI Website at www.LAI.org. On the left hand side click on the Members Only Tab. Here you will need to use your email and the password is lai.

New LAI Brochures Available!
Please contact LAI@LAI.org to order the New Brochures.

 

Save the Date ! ! !

Chicago, Fall Land Economics Weekend
October 22-25, 2009
Celebrating the Centennial of the Burnham Plan
The Drake Hotel, Chicago, IL
Hotel Reservations Rates:
*$255.00 US + taxes Single/Double
Phone: 1-800-55-Drake
More information coming soon!
 

Future Land Economics Weekends (Subject to Change)

2010
Spring: Minneapolis, Minnesota Chapter
Fall: New Mexico, Zia Chapter

2011
Spring: Scotland
Fall: ?

 

New Members

Members At-Large Domestic (Atlanta)


Allen Dedels, Cooper Carry
David K. Elam, Fannie Mae
Barbara Faga, EDAW Inc.
Joan H. Herron, HERRON CONSULTING LTD.
Patsy Jo Hilliard, City of East Point
Charles Krautler, Atlanta Regional Commission
Paul L. Martin, Fortis Financial & Real Estate Consulting, LLC
Aasia Mustakeem, Epstein Becker & Green
Russell R. Posey II, The Alter Group
Robert Price, Herron Consulting
Tad Scepaniak, Real Property Research Group
Robin R. Spratlin, Georgia Power
James T. Viviano, AIA, Cooper Carry, Inc.
Charles R. Whatley, Jr., Atlanta Development Authority

Ely Chapter

Patricia Abrams, The Renaissance Collaborative, Inc.
Jonathan B. Alper, Alper & Alper Consulting LLC
Gregory R. Andre, K&L Gates LLP
Timothy M. Angell, Mound City Planning
Curt R. Bailey, Related Midwest
Maureen M. Barry, Ehlers & Associates, Inc.
Andre E. Brumfield, EDAW / AECOM
Carol Coletta, CEOs for Cities
Ellen Dean, Village of Glenview
Randall Derifield
Lee Deuben, Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
David Doig, Park Bank Initiatives
Peter T. Dyke, Thompson Dyke & Associates
Marilyn Engwall, City of Chicago, Dept. of Community Development
Ted Feenstra, V3 Companies, LTD
Robert L. Gamrath, Quarles & Brady LLP
Roxanne Gardner, Property Solutions Group
Barbara H. Gordon, Chicago Architecture Foundation
Michael L. Hagen, AIA, LEED AP, TVS Design
Roxanne E. Henry, Ross Barney Architects, Inc.
Howard Hirsch, Hirsch Associates LLC
Kim L. Hunt, O-H Community Partners, Ltd.
Helen J. Kessler, FAIA, LEED A.P., H J Kessler Associates
Michael Laube, Laube Companies
Devine J. Lavigne, AICP, Houseal Lavigne Associates
Heidi Lawton, Lawton Realty Group, Inc.
Frank Christopher Lee, FAIA, Johnson & Lee, Ltd.
Bradley H. Leibov, Terra Firma Co.
Elaine Lockwood-Bean, Bovis Lend Lease, Inc.
Caroline A. Nash, Chico & Nunes
Andrew Norman, U.S. Equities Realty
Marcus J. Nunes, Chico & Nunes, P.C.
Michael A. Pagano, College of Urban Planning & Public Affairs, University of Illinois at Chicago
Mr. Coortney Derrick Pogue, The Waterworks Group
Arnold Randall, Chicago 2016
Robert Allen Rejman, Chicago Park District
Paul W. Shadle, DLA Piper LLP (US)
Ann Marie Sink, Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP
Anthony Q. Smith, S.B. Friedman and Company
Jennifer M. Tammen, The Tammen Group
Patrick D. Thompson, DLA Piper
William W. Towns, Mercy Portfolio Services
Federico Vidargas, AIA, ZFV Architecture
Diane C. Williams, Business Districts, Inc.
Elizabeth A. Williams, Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP
Paul A. Zalmezak, City of Chicago, Dept. of Community Development


LAMBDA ALPHA INTERNATIONAL
The Honorary Society for the Advancement of Land Economics


Sponsors/Business Cards:

John Marshall Law school business card

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www.appraisalresearch.com business card

Place your card here Call 630/510-4584
$250 U.S. for 12 months

LAI reserves the right to accept or reject any advertisement submitted for LAI’s publications and on its Web sites. The appearance of advertising in LAI’s publications and on its Web sites in no way implies endorsement or approval by LAI of any advertising claims or of the advertiser, its product, or services. LAI will disclaim any liability whatsoever in connection with advertising appearing in LAI publications and on its Web sites.

 

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