LAI KeyNotes: December 2008

Helen Sause

Editor’s Column

Dear Colleagues,

Dear Colleagues: It IS 2009 and I think we all agree on the happiness of seeing the end of 2008!!!

But what’ll it be? Despair and Gloom? Or Promising Glimmers? One prognosis says this economic collapse will last into the foreseeable future and that it’ll take us years to work out of the wreckage – another one says “oh things will pick up mid-2009”. None of us know. And the despair of seeing companies fail, our job or savings disappear are intolerably painful. Well I believe we have to try and think in terms of the possible rather than gnash our teeth over the past and project its failures into the future. I don’t want to seem to belittle the suffering felt by all sectors. The plunging home prices and rising foreclosures that have helped to erase $10 trillion of household wealth, 12 straight months of job losses, the credit crunch that has hit consumers and businesses, there’s lots of more of the news chronicling this sea of troubles!!!

I just think that we can’t simply hunker down – we have to try to find things to do and to develop a way forward, no one benefits from the downward spiral and only we can collectively stop it.

So lets think about Promising Glimmers.... First the incredible peaceful shift of power in the US national leadership and the hope that the new administration brings - just days away. (We pray for the safety of all elected officials and a civil recognition that while we may disagree it is our blessed right to do so.)

Our Chapters and International connections are surely Promising Glimmers. No other social gathering can match our chapters for understanding what is going on with development professionals. Ask your speakers not to report on the already known doom but try to tease out what they are doing to “move on” and how that can relate to getting the development industry going again. The opportunities include using chapter leverage to invite people who are in the thick of trying to solve the economic issues and seek their ideas to move toward solutions. If you are in a City with a Federal Reserve President ask them to speak and allow time for your member’s questions to be heard by them. Quiz your local Public Works departments about the local, county state plans for infrastructure construction. Or anyone else who is in a positon to seek money to spend in your community.

Energy, environment and all things related to biomedicine and health care will be obvious leaders in the use of “pump priming” money. See what the structural needs are of these providers and begin working with them on what they see happening in their areas, large food processing and fresh produce markets need to upgrade to meet new sanitary requirements and green building structures and hopefully there will be more Federal housing money.

No one knows what, or when or how much but if we all wait to find out the certainties, we will be behind – seek information NOW – cultivate relationships in new markets and undreamed of visions... the “Smart Home” which is a computerized triumph of automation, controlling a house’s lighting, heating, flexible room arrangements, kitchens filled with smart appliances....all kinds of ideas are out there – become best friends with these innovators so when they need a store room, a warehouse, office buildings built they will think first of you. Best of all in our known fields entitle everything you possibly can- we know the market will come back – there is no way we will all collectively toss in the towel and just lie down...so find a spring board and be ready to jump on it!

Remember what we were told as kids when we realized the world could be pretty unfair – “pick yourself up and try again”...and look for the promising glimmers of hope.

Best to you all.

Helen Sause
International LAI Editor
helensause@alamedanet.net

Report from the LAI EAST Region:

Happy New Year to the Leadership and Members of your Lambda Alpha International (LAI) Chapter. This has been an eventful year for the East - Region of LAI. We had some modest growth in membership even during these difficult economic times. And, we attended two exciting 2008 Weekend Experiences - Phoenix in April and Toronto in October – which has highlighted much of why we continue to thrive as an organization. A new Chapter was established in Dublin/Belfast Ireland. I participated in the LAI Weekend experience in Dublin and Belfast. And, we now have the opportunity to expand LAI into the Southeastern United States… Atlanta, Georgia. It is for this reason that I am communicating with each you, at this time. I am asking that this information be shared with your Chapter.

On December 2nd, we hosted a meeting in Atlanta after extensive communications with several persons who were interested in establishing a chapter in that City. Led by Joan H. Herron, President, Herron Consulting (formerly of the Ely Chapter) and Paul L. Martin, President, Fortius Financial & Real Estate Consulting, LLC, they are the core leaders of an interest group committed to form a LAI Chapter. The East Region Officers are interested in assisting them in identifying additional persons who would qualify for membership in our organization. Thus, we are asking Chapter members to assist in this opportunity to create a pool of candidates to begin the formation process to create a pool of At-Large Members.

Thus, I am asking each Chapter’s support in having members of your Chapter to identify individuals in the Greater Atlanta area that they know – personally or professionally – who would qualify for LAI Membership. I would appreciate you forwarding any such names to my attention for processing through the East Region Office. This is a great opportunity for the East Region and Lambda Alpha international.

Again, we in the East Region wish you, your Chapter Members and their Families a Very Happy New Year. Thanks.

Sincerely,

Ackneil M. Muldrow, II
Vice President, East Region
Amuldrow2@parkermuldrow.com

In Memoriam

Golden Gate Chapter

HAL ELLIS

Lambda Alpha member, real estate pioneer, and local legend Hal Ellis died in December 2008 at the age of 77 of metastatic melanoma. Ellis was chairman of Ellis Partners, a company he started in 1993. A founder of real estate brokerage Grubb & Ellis, as a developer and investor he was also responsible for some of the Bay Area’s most notable real estate projects, particularly in Oakland, where he had been active since the 1950s. They include City Center and Jack London Square. Ellis’ real estate career started at age 19, when he obtained his real estate license while still at UC Berkeley. After an Air Force stint and a Stanford M.B.A., he went to work with his Berkeley fraternity brother John Grubb to form Grubb & Ellis in Oakland as a residential development company in 1958. Over the next two decades Ellis grew his business into a diversified real estate regional development company, undertaking pioneering developments such as the 15 block City Center project in downtown Oakland. After selling City Center in 1980 Ellis created the first national real estate brokerage, taking Grubb & Ellis 1982, raising $10 million, and expanded from 25 office in the West by acquiring two dozen brokerages in the East, Midwest and in Texas.

Ellis retired from Grubb and Ellis at 61, and created Ellis Partners, with his daughter, Melinda, and son, Jim. Ellis partners focused on value added opportunities in Northern California. Much of the San Francisco-based group’s recent efforts have been focused on the 1.2-million-square-foot redevelopment of Oakland’s Jack London Square, a $400 million project currently under construction.

Chapter Corner

“What Are House Prices Telling Us?” was the topic of featured luncheon speaker Karl E. ‘Chip’ Case, co-founder of the closely watched Case-Schiller-Weiss Home Price Index. Professor Case addressed the well-attended December 10th Annual Chapter Meeting held at Boston’s venerable Union Club. Professor Case discussed the subprime and Alt-A lending-related causes of the current housing meltdown, including insightful comparisons among key regional and metro level markets that are experiencing the most notable declines in home values.

The Annual Meeting was also the occasion for welcoming two new Chapter members, Jeffrey Levine and Andrew Olins.

Earlier in 2008, Boston Chapter members and guests received an enlightening presentation on “Green” building initiatives by former Chapter President John Fuller.
John presented several examples of creative green building—both new construction and adaptive reuse—from the recent experience of the architectural firm Perkins and Will where he serves as a Principal in the Boston office.

The chapter’s Speakers Series was invited by Beta Alpha Psi at the University of Illinois - Champaign, Urbana to make a presentation on December 2nd. Beta Alpha Psi is a national scholastic and professional fraternity for Financial Information Professionals. The fraternity now includes nearly 230 chapters on university campuses with over 200,000 members initiated since the fraternity’s formation. Mike Mallon, President of Mallon and Associates, met with over 30 students and discussed Retail Real Estate Development. For additional information on the Ely Chapter’s Speakers Series please contact Mike Mallon at mike.mallon@malloninc.com .

The Chicago region is celebrating the Burnham Plan Centennial this year as the Plan of Chicago dates to 1909. Ely Chapter, with financial support from the Land Economics Foundation, has produced a book of essays by LAI members who discuss the Plan’s legacy and its relevance to contemporary issues. Members of the Chapter also are busy planning the Land Economics Weekend here this October. Several fascinating tours will be offered. The symposium will discuss using Burnham's principles as a catalyst for planning in the 21st century. We hope that you will join us this fall.

Ed.Note: Laurie, thank you for your high standard of reporting, your timeliness and interesting articles have been a great pleasure to include in the KeyNotes. You will be missed.

Note: Readers, the “speakers series” the Chapter has provided Chicago is excellant. It is an idea that all of us could incorporate and use to develop a closer relationship with nearby colleges/universities/ business schools. I am sure Ely members would be pleased to share how it is carried out! h

A Year to Forget

Former Golden Gate Chapter President Alan Billingsley and Hope Nadji of RREEF presented their annual economic and real estate market forecast to the Chapter in January. The presentation started with a recap of previous year’s predictions and included projections on the national and regional economy for 2009 with a look forward to for the next five years. Their presentation is described below. For copies of the slides click here.

“The economic and real estate market downturn that RREEF Research forecast in our 2007 and 2008 presentations finally arrived. Unfortunately, the excesses built up over this period have placed us in the midst of the worst recession of our careers. While unlike the last major recession in the 1990s, commercial real estate is not the focus of these excesses, it is certainly being impacted in a major way. This, like all recessions, will end. Technically, we believe this recession will end during 2009, and the jobs recession should turn around in 2010. Nevertheless, it will be a long road back to economic health.

Property markets, relatively well behaved from a supply perspective, were very much part of the asset bubble, with pricing attained in 2007 that was completely unsustainable. As a result, commercial real estate is being hit by substantial price declines along with rapidly deteriorating market fundamentals. Peak values are unlikely to be achieved in the foreseeable future.

The San Francisco Bay Area economy is forecast to outperform the US, and its property markets are expected to follow. But it may be little comfort to note that our metro will be merely awful, as opposed to horrendous in the bulk of the country.

Vancouver's Living Shangri-La has now been completed and is open and occupied. Living Shangri-la is a mixed-use skyscraper in Downtown Vancouver and is the tallest building in Metro Vancouver and the 9th tallest building in Canada.

The new 62-storey, 646 foot height, "Shangri-La" tower contains a 5-star hotel on the first 15-floors, with condominium apartment units occupying the rest of the tower. The building's podium complex also includes a spa, Urban Fare specialty grocery store, a Vancouver Art Gallery public display, and a public sculpture garden. The hotel is a member of the Shangri-La Hotels and Resorts chain, and is Shangri-La's first North American property. The high-rise stands 659 ft tall and a private roof garden will be constructed on floor 61. The total cost of this building was CDN$350 million dollars. As part of the development deal, the Coastal Church, built in 1919 and located at the west end of the site, is undergoing a $4.4 million restoration.
Vancouver's guide lines for development restrict buildings that interfere with the view corridors of the Coastal Mountains from he north slopes of False Creek. To respect this the building has resulted in a 1,200 sq. ft. floor plate of a triangular shape with some dramatic profiles. The food sore and other retail enterprises are sculpted into the urban form with planted sloping roofs separated by diagonal shortcuts through the site planted in dense swaths of timber bamboo.

The site with a presentation of the urban design and a discussion of the building will be part of the Saturday tour during the LEW, Vancouver this coming May, 7-9.

Attention LAI Members! Forgot how to login? No Problem
Please visit the LAI Website at www.LAI.org. On the left hand side click on the Members Only Tab. Here you will need to use your email and the password is lai.

As we welcome a new year, I hope that everyone has a healthy and prosperous new year!

If you are returning as Chapter President or Administrator or if you are a new Chapter President or Administrator, I wanted to take this opportunity to welcome you and bring you up-to-date on the latest from LAI International.

The goal of every chapter should be 100 members. LAI has funds in the budget to help Chapters with this objective. If you need some assistance please contact your Regional Vice President or me.
As you all know, we are in the middle of dues renewal, please help us collect 2009 dues.
There is a new policy to be implemented for non-paying dues members that will be distributed shortly. The Board of Directors adopted a membership policy, which includes a disenrollment policy. Some of you may recall in 2005 letters were mailed to members who had not paid dues in a couple of years, the letter invited them to come back to the organization. I will again be sending out these letters asking non-paying members if they would like to return, the letter will include a time limit for rejoining and a $25.00 reinstatement fee. This will require us to work together on non-paying members, but will improve the quality of our records and yours. The information will be coming to you soon with more details.

Please be sure to send Michele or myself any updates of Chapter officers, and a calendar of events for your Chapter. The LAI website has recently gone through some minor changes. One change was made to the “members only” page, a regrouping of the members resources, should make it easier to find what you are looking for.
Another change was made to the email blast for Chapter Administrators (only), please contact me if you wish to use the email blast and I will walk you through the new procedure.

The Spring LEW will be in Vancouver BC, CANADA May 7-9, 2009. I will be sending out a PDF with an overview of the Spring LEW as soon as it is available.
The Fall LEW will be in Chicago, IL, October 22-24, 2009 in conjunction with the Burnham Celebration.

Board Member Fereydoon Ghaffari has been working with the American Planning Association to bring AICP credits to the Land Economics Weekends. Mr. Ghaffari will also be inquiring about what a Chapter has to do to receive AICP credits for Chapter functions and will advise, once he has all the details. We will bring you more information on this as soon as it becomes available.

Per the email you received from Regional Vice President Neil Muldrow, we are looking to develop these two cities in 2009. If there is anyone you know that should be an LAI member and is not currently, please forward their names to me and I will pass them onto the appropriate Chapter. (What a great way to build membership!)

For those of you who don’t know, a charter was granted to the Irish (Ireland) Chapter in October of 2008. We welcome them to LAI!

For new Chapter Presidents and as a reminder:
As a Chapter President you are a voting member of the Foundation. The Trustee’s meeting will occur at each LEW at a designated time. You will be notified just before the LEW as to the date and time of these meetings and you are encouraged to attend. Grant applications are due 30 days before a Board of Governors meeting (LEW). The foundation looks forward to receiving applications from the Chapters.

My goal is to continue to help make your transition and your job as a Chapter officer or Administrator trouble-free. I will continue to try to put as much information as possible on the LAI website, including any new Chapter Manual updates. The Regional Vice President are also available and willing to help their respective Chapters. KeyNotes offer each Chapter a great opportunity to submit articles and Chapter happenings. If your Chapter does not have a Scribe, you should consider creating a Scribe position. In the meantime, please submit articles to LAI’s Scribe Ms. Helen Sause and LAI Administrative Director Michele Meng.

Thank you all very much for you dedication to LAI, please let me know if you have any questions or need any help.

Save the Date ! ! !

Vancouver, Canada, Spring Land Economics Weekend
May 7- 9, 2009
Terminal City Tower Hotel
837 West Hastings Street
Vancouver , B. C. Canada
www.tctowerhotel.com

Hotel Reservations
Rates: $210.00 CAN Net, + taxes Single/Double
Phone: +604 681 4121
Toll Free: 1-888-253-8777
Fax: +604 488 8617
Email:hotel@tcclub.com
Registration Form coming soon!

Chicago, Fall Land Economics Weekend
October 22-25, 2009
More inofrmation coming soon!

Future Land Economics Weekends (Subject to Change)

2009
Spring: Vancouver, Canada, Vancouver Chapter
Fall: Chicago, Ely Chapter

London
Robert Thompson, MBCS, MBA, CITP, RETRI Group
PhilipWinsor, Quest Interiors Limited