Helen Sause

Editor’s Column

Dear Colleagues,

The dismal forecasts and dire market realities around the globe are having so many visible effects on daily life. Somehow it seems even worse at this time of year. It is evident from the bank employee who confides that they will soon be advised by the bank that has newly acquired them of who goes and who stays. Upon inquiry it seems that longevity and skills will not be measures to be considered in the layoffs. The older employees have more built up benefits and will be the first to go. Then there is the anxious mother trying to wring the most out of her grocery money, tying up the check- out line while her coupons and vouchers are slowly examined and counted, one can only look on with sympathy. Then there are the colleagues whose email bounces with the message that the person is no longer with their company. For all the cyclical nature of the economy, never has there been a time like this in my long memory.

The flip side of this despair is the hope offered by the experienced, knowledgeable team the incoming President is assembling and the appearance of their being ready to hit the ground running on January 20. The huge obstacles that they face are daunting but it inspires hope that fresh eyes and energy may turn the tide. In the meantime we all need to looking for opportunities, hang onto whatever you can, see if there are entitlements that can be obtained and later used when this tsunami washes away. Sustainable development, recycling processes, green collar jobs, the promised infrastructure construction, the reuse of the sadly repossessed housing, the new frontiers of stem cell research, the health care needs to be met, all may offer new uses for talent and imagination.

LAI members are in a perfect place to use their expertise and model new thinking, new ideas for doing old things differently and starting new things not yet thought of, to look at the new landscape and see what opportunities can be found. Attend your chapter meetings, network and work to achieve newly imagined concepts. Above all hang onto your health and sense of humor.

All the best for this holiday season, and may the New Year bring new and fruitful work.

‘Til next time.

Helen Sause
International LAI Editor
helensause@alamedanet.net

 

Chapter Corner

Baltimore Chapter:

The interesting 2008-program year climaxed at the recent annual meeting with the induction of 7 new members and a spirited discussion by guest speaker, Mr. Roger Staiger III.

LAI–Baltimore President John Murphy and Robert Lefenfeld, Membership Chair, warmly welcomed the following into the LAI Fraternity:

Ms. Abigail Byers Ferretti, Partners for Economic Solutions;
Mr. Gardiner Fraker, The French Companies;
Mr. Melvin L. Freeman, Freeman Consulting Group, LLP;
Mr. James French, The French Companies;
Mr. Williams Barker French, The French companies;
Mr. Robert J. Robidoux, William S. Wise, Inc.; and
Mr. Calvin Thomas, Lipman Frizzell & Mitchell.

Mr. Staiger, Fund Manager for a Development/Construction Fund in New York is responsible for all aspects of the $1.25 B portfolio that invests all commercial asset classes on a national footprint. He also is a full-time lecturer at The Johns Hopkins University Edward St. John Department of Real Estate and member of the faculty of The Dubai Real Estate Institute (DREI). He discussed “The Financial Crisis and its Effect on Maryland.”

By background, U.S. assets in 2006 were valued at $71.1 trillion. The 3 classes of assets are fixed income; securities/equities; and real estate. Real estate represents the largest of the three, with residential real estate representing four times the commercial share. By November 14, 2008, the market share had shrunk by $13 trillion to $61.3 trillion. This fact led Staiger to characterize the downturn as “colossal and that the problems had only begun.“ The American dream has been to own one’s home. Historically, the rate of homeownership in the United States has been 64.45%; in 2006, this had increased to 69%. So, to the question whether the $700 billion bail out will save us, he emphatically said: “No. We are broke and it now is socially acceptable to default on one’s home.”

Of the 8,500 banks in the U.S., 19 failed in 2008 and he predicted more would fail in 2009 and 2010. Citigroup, the biggest U.S. financial company by market value two years ago ($250 billion) now is less than 1/10th its size (The Independent, Bloomberg, November 27, 2008).

In response to questions from LAI members about “when will we hit bottom,” Staiger indicated possibly the first quarter of 2011 for residential and 2012 for commercial. He foresees some price appreciation in 2013-2014.

In Staiger’s view, these economic times will affect Marylanders through depressed wages and no salary growth plus unemployment, especially in the construction, financial and real estate industries. Budget cuts in transportation and education assistance are a given.

LAI-Baltimore former President and current Board Member, Josef Nathanson lamented the belt-tightening by the Maryland’s Department of Transportation. In his article on November 7, 2008 in The Daily Record entitled: “Regional Perspectives: What’s wrong here – MTA ridership is up but service heads down”, Nathanson reported the Mass Transit Administration plans to curtail its existing schedule of commuter busses and MARC trains based on “fiscal necessity.” He added: “This comes not because the transit service is experiencing a decline in ridership or a falloff in fare-box revenue because the opposite is happening. Rather, the cutbacks are the result of automobile drivers driving less and the resulting decline in gas tax revenue. “

In October 2008 when oil peaked at $147 a barrel amid Wall Street predictions it was headed to $200 by year-end, the price instead has dropped by over 70%. In early December, the price per barrel was $44.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Mr. Staiger’s last prediction of the evening was oil soon would be $40 a barrel. On that note, Immediate Past President Ackneil M. Muldrow II saluted and thanked Rachel F. Edds, AICP and President-Elect for the fine program she coordinated and. President Murphy concluded the meeting, leaving us to ponder Staiger’s sobering assessment as we walked to our cars to drive home.

Tara B. Clifford, Baltimore Chapter Scribe
www.LAI-Baltimore.org

Ely Chapter:

The Ely Chapter heard a fascinating luncheon presentation from member Luann Hamilton who is the Deputy Commissioner of the Division of Project Development at the Chicago Department of Transportation. She discussed the City’s Complete Streets program. The public way, including streets, alleys and sidewalks, represents 23% of the City’s total land area. The public way’s role in how people function in a city is obvious, but it also has a role in how people experience a city. CDOT’s approach considers the adjacent land uses, the design of streets, and how bicyclists and pedestrians, as well as cars, trucks and buses use a street. CDOT reviewed a proposal to tunnel underneath a major intersection, which would require a long period of construction, with resulting impact on neighborhood businesses. Instead, CDOT chose an alternative that involved land acquisition to provide a route around the heavily traveled intersection, as a solution that best met the needs of all users of the public way.

The Board recently conducted an on-line survey of members to help us plan future luncheons, salons and Chautauqua’s. The survey also asked members if they were interested in volunteering for the Speakers Bureau, Chapter Board, Board committees and a possible mentoring program. The respondents had many good ideas which the Board will discuss soon.

We conclude our 2008 activities with the Holiday Party, which occurs on a weekday evening after work at a downtown restaurant. We hold a brief business meeting, primarily to elect the Chapter Board for 2009. The event is free to our members who enjoy the opportunity to socialize and network in a festive atmosphere.

Laurie Marston, Ely Chapter Scribe

Golden Gate Chapter:

The Golden Gate Chapter held its annual banquet and new member initiation on December 4. Twenty-two new members from the development, investment, public sector, architecture, finance, and legal sectors were installed (click here for initiates). The banquet was held at the Four Seasons San Francisco (a development in which several Golden Gate chapter members were involved) and was attended by 160 members and guests. Member Michael Corvarrubias of TMG Partners served as Master of Ceremonies and delivered the evening’s main address. Corvarrubias advised attendees that while the economy was dreadful, “the cliff is now behind us”. He gave tips so that members will recognize the next downturn before it is upon us, saying that the next time “everyone” is happy with the economy, it is time to exit. Instead of location, location, location, we were advised to adopt staying power, staying power, staying power as our mantra.

The highlight of the evening came when member Jessie Smith, Deputy City Attorney for the City and County of San Francisco (click here) was recognized as the Outstanding Member of the Year, due to his contribution to development projects that have transformed the City, including the Giants Ballpark, Mission Bay, Westfield Center, and the conversion of the Hunters Point Shipyard and Treasure Island military bases. He exemplifies the highest aspirations of public service, bringing his considerable talents, high standards of excellence, and relentless energy to bear on public projects, such as the Giants waterfront baseball stadium and the renovated Ferry Building, Westfield Center, the conversion of the Hunters Point Shipyard among many others, that have immeasurably enhanced the quality of life for residents of San Francisco, and visitors from throughout the world. Smith becomes the 22nd member of the year recognized since the Golden Gate Chapter was founded in 1964.

Denise Conley, Golden Gate Chapter Scribe

Orange County Chapter:
 
In following with our Tradition of an Economic Forecast at our December meeting, the Orange County, California Chapter had Dr. Mira Farka, from the Department of Economics, California State University, Fullerton present an Economic Forecast for 2009. Dr. Farka has a PhD from Columbia University and has worked for Deutsche Bank and has also conducted economic research on Wall Street.
Dr. Farka talked about the recession we are in and have been in as well as how the recovery will be slower than the current decline. We can expect to start to see some rebound from the recession by later 2009, though some areas it will take longer due to the impact of housing, foreclosures, and job loss.

The Orange County Chapter has prepared an impressive line up of speakers for 2009. We have a panel of distinguished speakers (a number of which are Chapter members) who will discuss: "How to find Money in the current market". Our January speaker will be discussing "Survival Strategies for the Office Market Place". Our Speaker, Nelson Rising, is very familiar with this as they have developed some excellent high rise offices that are completely vacant at this time.

Despite all the bad press, the Orange County Chapter has decided to call 2009 "The Year of Opportunity". Our focus with our programs and our speakers is to provide our members with market information and intelligence that can be used to survive the recession and position ourselves and our firms to thrive once it is over.

Happy Holidays from the Orange County Chapter!

Steve Figgins, Orange County Chapter President

Vancouver Chapter:

Preparations are going on apace for the Vancouver Land Economics Weekend, to be held
May 7 – 9, 2009.

Vancouver Olympic Ice Center

This will be an unparalled opportunity to see the “back stage” of the 2010 Olympic game venues. On Saturday, December 13, the Vancouver LEW organizing committee drove the tour route and visited the event locations for the May 2009 LEW to make adjustments and refinements to the schedule. The Richmond Oval had its Official Opening the day before and is now open for the public when we visited it. With 14 months still to go before the 2010 Olympic Games begin, Canadian skate blades are already carving up the Olympic circuit, at the “Oval”. This facility can hold 8,000 spectators and will host the long track skating which will be the home for 12 medal events with potentially 36 medals to be awarded.

With a few adjustments the committee is confident that what promise to be fascinating tours will run smoothly and on schedule.

Don Vaughan, Vancouver Chapter Scribe

Announcements

Administration Matters!

Attention LAI Members! Forgot how to login? No Problem 
Please visit the LAI Website at www.LAI.org. On the left hand side click on the Members Only Tab. Here you will need to use your email and the password is lai.

• Prestige of being an invited member of  a national 75 year old recognized land economics organization
• Being a part of an international network of exceptional professionals in all aspects of land development ? with access to their knowledge
• Able to learn of and use the models developed by other chapters
• A staff to deal with tax issues, non profit  paperwork, billing and following up on invoices and a myriad of other organizational support
• Learning experiences from the Land Economic Weekends
• Land Economics Foundation (LEF) grants available to assist in special local projects
• Low cost organization that provides the needed networking and support in stressful times (times of overwork as well as economic slowdowns)

-hls. Ed

Save the Date ! ! !
 
Vancouver, Canada, Spring Land Economics Weekend
May 7- 9, 2009
Terminal City Tower Hotel
837 West Hastings Street
Vancouver , B. C.  Canada
www.tctowerhotel.com

Hotel Reservations
Rates: $210.00 CAN Net, + taxes Single/Double
Phone: +604 681 4121
Toll Free: 1-888-253-8777
Fax: +604 488 8617
Email:hotel@tcclub.com
Registration Form coming soon!
 

Future Land Economics Weekends (Subject to Change)

2009
Spring: Vancouver, Canada, Vancouver Chapter
Fall: Chicago, Ely Chapter

2010
Spring: Minneapolis, Minnesota Chapter
Fall: New Mexico, Zia Chapter

2011
Spring: Scotland
Fall: ?

New Members

Boston
Andrew Olins, Olins Associates
Jeffrey Levine, Town of Brookline MA